Alex Smart NBA Basketball Handicapping Article: NBA Team Chemistry

NBA Team Chemistry
by Alex Smart

Football is now over and the nation’s eyes now move to the hardwood. With the NBA having just moved into the second half and the All-Star Break less than a few weeks away, I thought it would be an excellent opportunity to share with you some trends that should produce plays at least once in every 7-10 day period and if past history is repeated, will be more than profitable.

There are many teams that have a so called "superstar" in their front five, but you must remember, basketball is still a team game and no one person can carry his team on his shoulders day in and day out, during an arduous season, unless your name is Charles Atlas.

It's easy to see which teams are locked into playing the concept of "team basketball". Teams that manage this concept have done well in the past. For those not aware, a basket in the NBA is assisted on an average of 57% of the time.

Team basketball, chemistry and harmony could not be better exemplified than by the Phoenix Suns, as over the past few seasons, their baskets are assisted at a rate of 66% per game. The Suns success depends on unselfish play. So, a game in which at least 70% of the Suns baskets were assisted is still well above their average. It means that the Suns are playing like a cohesive unit, and the fact that Phoenix has been able to carry this performance on to the next game is great news.

The Suns are 18-3-1 ATS off a win in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted.

And when "team basketball" breaks down, the Suns have had a difficult time getting back “in the groove” in their next game and have an even tougher time living up to the linesmakers expectations. For example, when the Suns are off a game in which they had an unusually low number of assists, they are a bankroll depleting 0-14 ATS in regular season play since late December '03 after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.

And it's not just the Suns that fail when 'team chemistry' is extinct; the league on the whole has struggled. NBA teams that win a game in which a small percentage of their baskets were assisted have in the past produced a serious deleterious effect on the team’s performance in the following game. A low percentage of baskets assisted implies that a player or players are taking over on offense and going one on one versus their defender. This is not good basketball as it destroys team harmony and chemistry.

Specifically, NBA teams are 24-42-3 ATS since mid February 2003 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a win in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. By dropping the percentage of assisted baskets we get the following:

Less than 38% of their baskets were assisted, 15-27-2 ATS.

Less than 35% of their baskets were assisted, 7-18-1 ATS.

Some other teams that have had their troubles are:

Houston are 0-14 ATS since March '02 at home and off a road loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.

The Hornets are 0-12 ATS at home and off a win in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.

The NBA is not that difficult to handicap. Players are creatures of habit and if something worked last time there is every chance that players will repeat what has been successful in the past. And it's vice-versa. Teams and players that produced poor efforts last time, being that they allowed a high field goal percentage or played a poor offensive game by shooting less than 40% or had poor success from the charity stripe, make adjustments and perform better next time out.

San Antonio is 13-0 ATS since April 1997 at home off a game in which they allowed at least 55% shooting from the field.

And it's not just good squads that are able to respond, as even poor teams like Charlotte are able to make the necessary adjustments as the Bobcats are 12-2 ATS off a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field.

Miami is 13-3 ATS since March 2003 as a favorite with at least one day of rest off a road game in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field.

New York is 13-0 ATS since mid-February 1999 as a road dog with no rest off a loss in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field.

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