Alex Smart NBA Basketball Handicapping Article: Off An Overtime Game

NBA: Off An Overtime Game
by Alex Smart

When handicapping the NBA, I often look for situational spots that either support public perception or goes against what the public perceives. The latter usually gives the better line value, but the former should never be discounted.

Every morning, I make a note of any game that went further than the scheduled four quarters. This basic principle has produced long term profits under various parameters which I'm about to share with you, but all result from the basic set of "off a game that went to Overtime".

NBA teams are 29-46 SU and 24-50-1 ATS since November 20th, 2002 at home, with no rest, off an overtime game.

This basic principle has produced 72.9% winners when playing against in a little under six full seasons from something that one would expect to happen around 14 times a season. That's a little less than one qualifying game every two weeks. The above angle clearly falls into 'the public perceive' bracket that teams at home off an overtime game the day before tend to be both physically and mentally drained. Interestingly, teams do not suffer the same fate on the road (61-66-6 ATS).

Many smaller systems can be produced from this main set by adding parameters. From the original condition set out above, two further sets of angles can be produced by just stipulating the outcome of the overtime game yesterday.

NBA teams are 13-24 SU and 15-23 ATS (60.5%) at home off an overtime LOSS yesterday.

NBA teams are 16-22 SU and 9-28-1 ATS (75.7%) at home off an overtime WIN yesterday.

There are many other ways to break this 50-24-1 ATS trend down. I have covered off a win or a loss, but what if they’re favored or an underdog?

21-23 SU and 12-31-1 ATS (72.1%) as a home favorite today off an overtime game yesterday.

5-23 SU and 9-19 ATS (67.9%) as a home dog today off an overtime game yesterday.

How about if the team was favored or a dog in their last game?

11-9 SU and 5-14-1 ATS (73.7%) at home off an overtime game as a favorite yesterday.

18-36 SU and 19-35 ATS (64.8%) at home off an overtime game as an underdog yesterday.

How about the opponent's rest situation?

12-21 SU and 10-23 ATS (69.7%) at home off an overtime game yesterday vs. a rested opponent.

20-25 SU and 17-27-1 ATS (61.4%) at home off an overtime game yesterday vs. a team with no rest.

The above is an appetizer to numerous trends from the above original angle that I will divulge in the future.

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