NBA: Game Four Forward in Round One
by Alex Smart
The first round of the NBA playoffs are underway. The opening games of each series started this past weekend and we are now rolling along with most of the Game Two’s almost completed. This allows me the opportunity to share with you angles that will be pertinent for later games in the Round One.
*Round One Game 4 ROAD favs in Round One are 31-21 ATS since 1996, including;
(a) 16-5 ATS since 2003.
(b) 10-2 ATS as favs of -4 or more points.
(c) 4-1 ATS off a SU win of 14 or more points.
*Round One Game 4 teams facing postseason elimination are 1-7-1 ATS since 2003.
*Round One Game 4 HOME dogs priced at +1.5 or more points are 20-31-1 ATS since the 90-91 season.
*Round One Game 4 match-ups that have a posted total of 187 or higher are 21-44 O/U since the 90-91 season.
*Round One Game 4 ROAD favs who lost SU as a favorite in Game One are 4-13 O/U, including 1-9 O/U if they are off a Game 3 win.
*Round One Game 4 match-ups are 5-13 O/U off 3 straight "UNDERS", including 1-6 O/U with an OU line of 190 or more.
*Round One Game 5 ROAD teams playing off a SU favorite loss are 8-1 ATS.
*Round One Game 5 HOME teams off a double digit SU loss and ATS loss are 47-24 ATS, including
(a) 12-2 ATS vs. a foe with a .535 or less W-L percentage.
(b) 9-3 ATS coming off a Non-Division game and playing with 2 or more days rest.
*Round One Game 5 HOME favorites of -6 or more points who have a 3-1 LEAD in their respective series are 9-2 ATS since 1999.
*Round One Game 5 hosts that enter off a SU and ATS loss are 12-20-1 ATS since the 90-91 season.
*Round One Game 5 favorites of -6 or less points are 5-18 ATS since the 90-91 season.
*Round One Game 5 teams are 17-2-1 O/U off scoring 100 + points in back to back games since 1991, including;
(a) 9-1 O/U when taking to the road.
(b) 5-0 O/U as road dogs of less than +7 points.
*Round One Game 6 HOME teams with an OU line of 180-186 points are 7-2 O/U since 2001.
*Round One Game 7 HOME favorites of -4 or more points are 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS with the games not being that close. The hosts have won those five games by an average of 18 points, and beat the spread by more than 15 points a game on average.
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