Ben Burns NBA Handicapping Article: Totals and Back-To-Back Games

NBA: Totals and Back-To-Back Games
by Ben Burns

Recently, I’ve taken a look at how NBA teams have performed this season when playing in both the front end and the back end of a "back to back" situation. Previously, I’d focused on the "straight-up" and "against the spread" records in these situations.

This week, staying with the second of back to back games, I’ve shifted my focus to an over/under perspective. "Tired legs" can sometimes lead to sloppy defense. However, "fatigue" can also sometimes cause poor shooting. Before getting started, my "hypothesis" was that I’d find more "unders" than "overs" when teams were playing the second of back to back games.

My prediction proved accurate, barely. Overall, there were more "unders" than "overs." However, the difference was relatively minor (52% to 48%) and even the "under" wasn’t profitable (218-199,-0.9 units) when factoring in the "juice."

I did find some individual teams which have shown tendecies to either play high or low-scoring games when playing in the second of back to back games though. It isn’t all that surprising to learn that a strong defensive team like the Pistons, currently ranked #1 in points allowed, has seen 10 of 14 games stay below the total when playing the back half of a back to back. However, one wouldn’t expect a defensively challenged team like Memphis (currently ranked 30th in points allowed) to have seen the "under" go 10-5 in that situation. A complete look at each of the teams appears below.

NBA O/U RECORDS WHEN PLAYING THE SECOND OF BACK TO BACK GAMES

Atlanta: 7-7
Boston: 7-6
Charlotte: 7-7
Chicago: 6-7-1
Cleveland: 7-7
Dallas: 8-5-1
Denver: 10-4
Detroit: 4-10
Golden State: 8-5
Houston: 5-8
Indiana: 7-10
LA Clippers: 5-8
LA Lakers: 7-7
Memphis: 5-10
Miami: 9-6
Milwaukee: 8-8
Minnesota: 4-9
New Jersey: 6-8
New Orleans: 5-6
New York: 6-9
Orlando: 9-6
Philadelphia: 10-7 (8 straight overs)
Phoenix: 7-5
Portland: 4-9-1
Sacramento: 5-8-1
San Antonio: 5-7
Seattle: 4-7
Toronto: 7-7
Utah: 8-9
Washington: 9-6
TOTAL: 199-218-4

Get Guaranteed Winners from Ben Burns on a daily basis right here at Vegas Experts!