Ben Burns NBA Handicapping Article: Patterns and Aberrational Games

2008 NBA Playoffs: Patterns and Aberrational Games
by Ben Burns

Sports handicappers analyze statistical patterns, among other things, in an attempt to predict outcomes. Patterns reveal themselves in different ways. If a good pitcher struggles against a particular team, for instance, or a basketball team plays very different on the road than at home, those are patterns one needs to take into account for future contests.

The important distinction for handicappers is the difference between a pattern and one bad game. The Celtics, for instance, had the top road record in the NBA this season at 31-10 SU, 27-13 ATS. When they lost their first playoff road game at Atlanta, 102-93, it could have been chalked up as a statistical aberration, just a bad game by a great road team.

However, after getting smacked two games in Cleveland this weekend, the Celtics are now 0-5 SU/ATS on the road in the playoffs. THAT is no longer an aberration but a pattern! And that’s the key for handicapping, dissecting the bumps in the road from a consistent pattern that can be used in the future.

The Pistons used outstanding team defense to dominate the first two games of their series with the Orlando Magic, allowing 91 and 93 points. That was impressive, holding an Orlando team that averaged 104 PPG during the season to 12 below its average. Tayshaun Prince of the Pistons was just named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team on a Detroit defense that allowed 90 PPG, best in the NBA. Then came Game 3 in Orlando where the Magic went wild, whipping Detroit 111-86. This is when astute handicappers earn their money.

Was home court that big of an edge? Had the Magic made adjustments to jumpstart their offense? Was the injury to Chauncey Billups that significant? Or did Detroit simply have a bad game? All of these questions needed to be analyzed and addressed before the next game. A lot favored that the Pistons simply had a bad game. Detroit was 28-17 SU/ATS as a road team and they have excellent backcourt depth behind Billups.

The betting public was impressed by that one game, pushing Orlando from a 5 to 5½ point favorite, but good handicappers don’t look at the last game like the public. Detroit not only bounced back from that one poor performance, but won the game as a dog, 90-89, to take command of the series, even without Billups.

Their team defense was exceptional in Game 4, just as it had been in Games 1 and 2. Without Chauncey Billups (hamstring), the Pistons started Rodney Stuckey, with veteran Lindsey Hunter and Juan Dixon active. Lindsey Hunter, age 37, dove onto the floor and snatched the ball out of the hands of 24-year-old Jameer Nelson at one point. A jump ball was called, which Hunter won, leading to a Rasheed Wallace basket.

The play was emblematic of how the Pistons rallied out of a 15-point deficit in the third quarter to their 90-89 Game 4 victory. It was emblematic of the hustle and toughness of the Pistons veterans. 'He gave us great leadership and great toughness,' coach Flip Saunders said.

The Pistons also limited Dwight Howard to eight points on 3-for-12 shooting, including 0-for-7 after the first quarter. The Pistons got 12 offensive rebounds and turned them into 18 points. 'That killed us,' Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy said. 'That was the difference in the game.” Public bettors were more focused on the injury to Billups and the last game, a blowout Orlando win. But you must approach each game with patience and careful analysis.

By contrast, we can now conclude that the Celtics are a completely different team at home than on the road in the playoffs. It’s tough to pinpoint, but some answers appear to be confidence, coaching, and defensive lapses.

By the way, the guy to watch in Game 5 is not anyone in a Boston uniform but LeBron James. The Cavaliers hope history is going to repeat itself. The Cavs trailed the favored Pistons 0-2 a year ago, then stormed back to win 4 in a row (4-0 SU/ATS). Also, in three Game 5’s when a series is 2-2, James has been a monster. The first was an overtime battle against Washington when James went for 45 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists including the game-winner in overtime. Against Detroit in 2006 he had 32 points to go with 5 rebounds and 5 assists. In 2007 against the Pistons, LeBron had 48 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists. Those Game 5 averages: 41.6 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists! And two of those games were road games. Beware, Boston, here comes King James!

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