When analyzing pitchers to wager on or against, strikeouts are overvalued. It's fun to see which pitchers can blow away the opposition, or which ones can punch out the most hitters, but from a wagering standpoint it's not very important. For instance, a year ago, the same night Justin Verlander threw his no-hitter, the Angels Kelvim Escobar fanned 14 Reds.

There were two drawbacks, though. Escobar was only able to go 6 innings because high strikeout numbers usually mean high number of pitches. Also, the Angels lost the game, 5-3. Here are the top 5 strikeout pitchers in baseball: Javier Vazquez, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez. Through the first three months of the season their records were a combined 27-28. A bit surprising, isn’t it?

Sabathia got off to a rough start and has little offensive help, Burnett has an ERA close to five, and Hernandez plays for a terrible team. In addition, big-name strikeout pitchers usually mean having to lay a big price. From a betting standpoint, this is not the way to grind out a profit over the long haul. Pitching stats that are more important than individual strikeouts are bullpen numbers.

Last season, teams on average went through 17 relievers. That’s a far cry from the 5-6 starting pitchers a team uses in a regular rotation. The Phillies of 2007 rallied to the National League East title with the Majors' 24th ranked relief ERA (4.50). That’s also unusual. You’ll notice the Phillies didn’t get very far in the postseason, either, with the Colorado Rockies eventually winning the NL pennant.

The team the Rockies played in the World Series, Boston, had an exceptional bullpen, led by All Stars Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon. In games in which Okajima and Papelbon both appeared, the Red Sox started 28-5. But when they worked back to back, something that didn't happen until Okajima was given his first eighth-inning setup assignment on May 6, Boston went 22-1!

General managers try and stockpile as many quality arms as possible in the pen with many different roles. Veterans who used to be starters can be in long relief roles, to go 3-4 innings if necessary when a starter falters. This prevents a manager from burning out his pen in one game, so it doesn’t have a domino effect on the next few games. Short relievers provide a bridge in the 7th and 8th innings to get to a closer, as well as lefty specialists who can come in to face one batter. All of that requires several reliable arms.

Another thing to examine for in bullpen stats is the ability to strikeout hitters. Relievers often come in with runners in scoring position and it helps that they can fan a hitter to prevent a guy on third from scoring. A fly ball to the center will not affect his ERA, but a run scores and that can make a big difference in the outcome of the game.

A year ago there were two major league bullpens with ERAs under 3.00, the Padres and the Red Sox and both made the postseason. One of the great strengths of the Angels since winning the 2002 World Series has been exceptional bullpen depth, and this season is no exception with closer Francisco Rodriguez, and set-up men Scot Shields, Darren Oliver and Justin Speier. The Angels had a stretch earlier this season going 17-2 under the total! Quality relief pitching is a huge factor if you’re betting totals.

To look at it another way, take a gander at the worst bullpens in baseball last season: White Sox, Devil Rays, Tigers, Pirates, Reds, Orioles, Phillies and Royals. Only the Phillies made the playoffs and most had disappointing seasons. Another way to grind out a profit is to go against disappointing teams, and those with weak bullpens are one way to accomplish that.

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