MLB: Behind The Numbers
by Carlo Campanella
With 20 of the 30 Major League Baseball teams owning a winning percentage between the .450 and .600 Win Percentages, baseball has become harder for players to handicap. Professional gamblers don’t look at these teams as “average,” but rather wait for specific situations that the public doesn’t see to make their profits. Let’s take a look at 7 teams that have shown their backers profits in unique roles:
At 25-39 (.391 Win Percentage), the Washington Nationals haven’t received much attention from their fans or betting public, but maybe they should. Professional players have gone against them in the favorite role, noting that they’re actually performing worse as favorites at 4-12 (.250). This is an extremely attractive wagering situation as “playing against” Washington as Favorites would have produced 12 winners out of 16 wagers while getting dog value.
One of the better teams in the American League has been the LA Angels, who are currently 39-25 (.609), but they are usually Favored and leaving their backers to put up extra cash. Forget laying the higher price, these guys should be played in the Dog role, as they’re actually more profitable behind their 13-8 (.619) Dog record.
Everything about Oakland has been average up to this point of the season, including their 34-29 record. They have even posted an 19-18-4 Over/Under record when facing right-handed starters, but watch the profits roll in behind their 6-16 (Over/Under) mark when facing lefties.
Tampa Bay is in almost the exact same situation, posting a 22-23 (Over/Under) record against right-handed starters, however, they dropped to a 4-14 (Over/Under) mark when squaring off against southpaws.
Another average team appears to be Baltimore. At 31-30 (.508) they aren’t favored very often, but they’ve rolled over weaker opponents while earning a 9-3 (.750) record as favorites this season. Baltimore wins when they should and so will you in this profitable situation.
Atlanta (32-32) has struggled to get above .500, however, an incredible 25 of those 32 victories have come at home, as they haven’t been “Brave” on the road this year, posting a 7-21 (.250) record.
The New York Mets are yet another ball club hanging around the “Mendoza Line”, owning a 30-32 (.484) record after 62 games. Unusually, they have a losing record of 16-23 against right-handed starters, but are a solid 14-9 (.608 Win Percentage) against left-handed starters.
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