MLB: Six Pack of Emerging Trends
by MTi Sports
When handicapping baseball, it is crucial to continually refine and research trends that apply to past performance. Our supercomputers run hundreds of thousands of trends DAILY. The thoroughness with which we interrogate the baseball results on a daily basis will become apparent throughout this article as we reveal some strong trends that are from ONLY the current 2008 season.
To start, we’ll check out the Orioles’ performance when they are off a win in which they trailed by multiple runs. In 2008, Baltimore has come back from a multiple-run deficit to win a game seventeen times. In the following game they have been a +110 dog on the average. They are a fantastic 15-2 in the 17 games, losing only to the Red Sox and Yankees as an underdog. In this situation they were 7-0 in April, 4-1 in May and are 4-1 so far in June. It seems that coming back from a multiple run deficit is inspiring to the Orioles. Before we move on, it is worth mentioning that the Orioles have the most wins after trailing by 2+ runs in the league with 17. The Blue Jays, for example, only have two win in which they trailed by multiple runs
Next we’ll look at a situation in which you do not want to back the Cardinals. Many teams in the league get motivated when installed as an underdog vs a team on a losing streak. Not the Cardinals. They seem to adopt a defeatist attitude in their situation and allow their opponent to break their losing streak. Indeed, St Louis is a “perfect” 0-12 this season as a dog when facing a team that has lost their last two games. They were 0-3 in April, 0-5 in May and are 0-4 thus far in June.
To be a complete baseball handicapper, you have to uncover reliable favorites as well as live dogs. Here we have a situation in which a team can be relied upon to get the job done when favored. The team is the Tampa Bay Rays and the situation is simply when they are favored off a loss in which they never lead. Tampa is a perfect 11-0 in this situation so far in 2008, winning by an average of 3.5 runs per game. It seems likely that this team trend in performance is limited to only this season as the Rays are much better this season than the last. Performing the query reveals that this is not the case. In 2007 the Rays rattled off five straight winners in their last five occurrences, making them 16-0 their last 16 in this spot.
There is as much opportunity to beat MLB totals as there is to beat MLB sides. The last three 2008-Only trends in this article will be of the OU variety. To start we’ll look at the NY Yankees when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which their pitchers allowed at least five walks. The Yankees hurlers are nothing short of spectacular in this situation and this has led to a long string of UNDERS. In 2008, the Yankees are 0-11 in this when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. The Yankees’ eleven opponents have scored an average of only 1.6 runs per game in this situation – and they have been even better recently. The last seven final scores in this situation have been: 1-0, 6-3, 2-1, 8-0, 4-2, 5-1 and 4-1. That’s holding their opponent tom a total of 8 runs in seven games. Of course, this should be considered a play-on situation for the Yankees as well.
One of the most profitable and under-utilized baseball handicapping situations involves the third game of a three-game series that is tied at one game each. Knowing just how each team performs in this situation has us raking in huge profits on Sundays and Wednesdays. The Rockies are a team that plays in very close-to-the-vest in this situation, opting to move runners along rather than play for the big inning. Indeed, Colorado is 0-10 OU and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under. The average final score in these ten games has been 2.6-2.5 and this includes two extra-inning games
Finally, we’ll check out a situation where a team is in a desperate situation and they need big innings to win. Some teams play very aggressively as a road dog, figuring that an isolated run or two is not likely to win the game. This is a tactic employed by the Minnesota Twins. They are a perfect 10-0 OU this season as an away dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games. To break their opponent’s winning streak, Minnesota needs to be aggressive on offense and this has led to high scoring games. The average OU line in these ten games has been 9.2, but the two teams have combined for 13+ runs.
Keep an eye out for these situations to occur. We are watching these six and another few hundred thousand just like them very closely.
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