As you probably know the Atlanta Braves are 0-9 this year in one-run games. They are 15-6 in games decided by two or more runs. Neither trend figures to continue at those paces for the duration of the season. The Braves will eventually win a one-run game or two. They will lose a few by two runs or more. Last year the Chicago Cubs got off to a horrid start in one-run games under Manager Lou Piniella but eventually turned things around and finished 23-22 in one-run games.

How a team performs in one-run games is often a reflection of how well the manager is doing his job so the fact that the Braves are 0-9 in one-run games under veteran manager Bobby Cox is somewhat disturbing. Let's just say he'd better turn things around soon lest the rumors start that he's losing his touch or his faculties. The fact that the club went 18-25 in one-run games last year when it lost the N.L. East by five games to the Phillies does not help Cox' case. That's 18-34 in one-run games over the past season-plus.

The Boston Red Sox have had a good record in one-run games this year under manager Terry Francona. They are 7-2 in one-run decisions. It's an added dimension that makes the Red Sox that much more difficult to defeat. They not only have the personnel but a manager that knows what buttons to push when needed. Although last year the BoSox were below .500 in one-run games (22-28) and still won it all.

The Red Sox arch-rival, the New York Yankees, have a new manager this year in Joe Girardi. The jury is still out on how he'll handle his club in close games as the team has played so few of them. The Yankees are 4-3 in one-run games, 13-13 in those decided by two runs or more.

The Cubs too are just 4-3 this year in one-run games (14-10 in other contests) so it's too early to tell how they will perform in close games this year or how many they will be involved in. They have an unproven closer though in Kerry Wood with Carlos Marmol waiting to make the switch to that role should Wood falter.

Playing numerous one-run games will not necessarily make a team perform better in those contests. Right now the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants have played the most one-run games and both have .500 records in them. The Phillies are 7-7 and the Giants 8-8. The difference is the Phillies do better in games decided by two-runs or more (10-7) than do the Giants (6-10).

Lower-scoring teams in general are involved in more one-run contests. They don't have the big boppers on offense to put together a multi-run inning or two and beat down a team by three or four runs night after night. Thus they rely on pitching, defense and one-run strategies and draw their opponents into playing the same type of game.

The Los Angeles Angels under Mike Scioscia are renowned for playing a National League style of ball and play it well. They were 25-19 in one-run games last season and are 6-5 thus far this year.

A low-octane offense and a bad bullpen is a bad combination. Right now the San Diego Padres fit that description. They are 4-8 in one-run decisions and 8-12 in games decided by two runs or more.

Also struggling in one-run games, in large measure due to bullpen problems, are Seattle (1-8), Houston (3-7) and Toronto (3-8). Detroit (1-4) probably would be if they played a few more one-run games. Houston has a new manager this year in Cecil Cooper: he better turn things around if he wants to stay on the job. The other clubs all have veteran managers at the controls and all did well in one-run games last year when their bullpens were healthy.

Milwaukee is a team with bullpen problems of its own (mainly Eric Gagne) but enough offense to overcome some of that. It is 7-4 in one-run games this year after going 22-21 a season ago.

Baltimore has made the biggest turnaround in one-run performance. It is 8-3 this year under first-year manager Dave Tremblay after going an abysmal 13-31 last year. Bad teams sometimes do better in one-run games than they do in games decided by two runs or more but that was not the case with the Orioles last year. Texas though is 31-21 in one-run games last year and this despite an overall sub-.500 record. The case could thus be made that manager Ron Washington is actually doing a good job considering the limited resources he has to work with.

Minnesota (7-4), Florida (6-3) and Cincinnati (6-3) are doing well thus far in one-run games under Ron Gardenhire, Freddi Gonzalez and Dusty Baker. The Reds are 6-17 though in games decided by two-runs or more. Dusty needs his starters to keep the games within reach if his club is to have any hope of improving.

Arizona has the best record in baseball (21-10) but is just 4-4 in one-run decisions. So if you're playing the D'Backs you want to keep it close to have a chance. With some of these other teams you want to get a big lead on them if you can or get to them early because you know how tough they are out of the pen. Makes sense, doesn't it?

In conclusion, incorporate how teams do in one-run games into your handicapping process. Try to determine the reason behind the record and what the manager might do differently to change things if the team is struggling in one-run games or what the opposing manager might do to combat a team that is doing well.

Baseball is heating up and so is Robert Ross! He's been releasing both side and total selections in the Grand Olde Game on a guaranteed basis: you win or you don't pay!