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2008 NCAA Tournament Game Preview: Western Kentucky vs. UCLA by Marc Lawrence

  2008 NCAA Tournament Game Preview

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2008 NCAA Tournament
Regional Semifinals
Phoenix, AZ
Western Kentucky vs. UCLA
Thursday March 27th, 9:40 ET
Current Line and Total

by Marc Lawrence

The Hilltoppers will look to squeeze into a pair of Cinderella shoes when they take on No. 1 seed UCLA in Sweet 16 action Thursday Night at US Airways Arena in Phoenix. The game marks the first appearance in the Third Round of the tournament for Western Kentucky since 1993 when they bowed out, 81-78, against Florida State. At 29-6 this season, WKU has no losses by more than 10 points, while the Sun Belt Conference is 5-0 ATS all-time as a double-digit dog in this tourney. They are an experienced squad led by three senior guards who refuse to wilt under pressure.

And speaking of pressure, the Bruins can apply it. They are allowing a mere 37.5 PPG in the tournament and are 17-1 SU and 11-6-1 ATS away from Pauley Pavilion this season.

From our database we note that underdogs of 11 or more points are 6-1 ATS in this round. In addition, UCLA has shown signs wearing down in Sweet 16 games as evidenced by its 1-5 ATS mark of late. That, however, is in direct contrast to the PAC 10's strong 5-1 ATS record as a Sweet 16 favorite.

The bottom line is this: the magic number for the Hilltoppers will be 67 points. Should they find those 67 points they will likely cover this number given the fact they are 28-3 SU and 19-8 ATS this season in games in which they scored 67-plus points. They are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when they don't.

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